A leads to B (sometimes)

Your friend tells you : “I lost 20 pounds in 3 months just by doing kettlebell swings for 5 minutes a week. You should do it too!”

So after hearing it, you copy the same thing. You think, “Well, if it worked for him, (and he’s an idiot), then surely it’ll work for me.”

You go out and buy a kettlebell. You start doing your exercises. Only 5 minutes!

3 months goes by and you see no real results. If anything, you’ve gained 3 pounds. Now you want to kill your friend because he misled you.

But the problem is that you’ve misled yourself. 

You assumed that the relationship between cause and effect is linear. That if you do one thing, you’ll repeatedly get the other outcome. And in most situations that’s flawed.

We see it daily in the media and when we read about success. “If you work hard, you’ll become CEO.” “Stock prices fall because oil prices have risen.” or “You can lose 20 pounds in 3 months if you just do 5 minutes of kettlebell swings a week.”

We believe that to be true because we like the simple explanation. For one, it sells better. For example, “Housing prices in Vancouver are high because of the Asian influx.” That’s a sexy headline and it’s easily shareable.

But maybe it’s not the only reason that housing prices are high.

Maybe there is a low supply in the “nice to live in” areas. Maybe after the Economist released the Most Liveable City Rankings, people decided to flock to Vancouver. Or maybe Canada’s immigration laws allow people to come to the country easily.

So the next time that someone suggests that you do A, to get B, tell him to stop. It’s never that simple. There is some combination of skill and luck involved.

A leads to B, sometimes.